Event:
Sep 29–Oct 5 is the first golden National Week Holiday after abolishment of golden Labor Week Holiday, thus we conducted a survey to track and analyze the tourism market.
Our analysis and estimation:
Four main characteristics were presented:
Receivals and revenue reached new records; revenue increase exceeded receival increment. According to statistics from National Tourism Bureau, 119 scenic spots under inspection received tourists of 18.29mn, an increase of 10.5% yoy, and realized 16.40% yoy increment in total revenue. Meanwhile, revenue increase universally exceeded receival increment, which indicated that expenditure of single tourist was intended to boost.
Post-Olympic effects widely released. During the week holiday, Olympic Park became the hottest attraction; it received up to 2.17mn visitors in only 6 days, about one fourth of the total. Driven by Olympic gym visiting tide, Qingdao Undersea World and Qingdao Ocean World enjoyed increases of 90% and 53% respectively in receivals and major places of interest in Shenyang also saw large increase. We forecast tourism markets in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenyang and Qingdao will enjoy outstanding performances in the coming two or three years.
Visits clearly converted to leisure tourism; surrounding economic development and roadway status became important elements. Traveling methods became more diversified and popular; family drive-travel and self-help traveling became main part of the market.
Mid-long distance traveling became mainstream; long distance lines were adversely influenced. Since the seven-day Labor Week Holiday has been divided into four shorter holidays; over 50% visitors chose domestic long-distance traveling, thus short-distance visitors sharply declined. In addition, negative overall economy anticipation and sluggish stock market restrained increases of long distance visitors.
Investment suggestion:
Three conclusions have been drawn that: 1) booming National Week Holiday finished downturn of China tourism industry in the first 9 months; 2) China tourism market still has great potential under slowdown of macro-economic acceleration and CPI hikes; 3) drive-travel and self-help traveling will become new driving forces for visitors increment.
Finally, we believe listed companies in hotel and tourism industry will enjoy the best long-term development for their developed regional economy, sound roadways and post-Olympic effects, recommend Huangshan Tourism Development (600054), Shanghai Oriental Pearl (600832), China Quanjude (002186), China CYTS Tours Holding (600138) and Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Holding (000069).