Event:
General Administration of Customs released China’s import & export statistics in March:
In March 2009, total value of China’s import & export was USD162.02bn (-20.9% yoy), of which, export was USD90.29bn (-17.1% yoy), while import totaled USD71.73bn (-25.1% yoy); trade surplus stood at USD18.56bn (+41.2% yoy).
Our Analysis and Estimation:
1. Import & export acceleration were in the downturn.
2. Real import & export acceleration maintained sluggish.
3. Downside to major business partners did not change.
Conclusion:
In March, export greatly surged compared with that of February 2009; this is mainly due to forceful economic stimulus packages of different countries and economic rebound. However, demand can not recover within short term, thus China’s import & export will not return to fast growth in 2009. Export decline will be the main factor that drags China’s economic growth in 2009.