Event:
The company announced its 2008 annual report today, in which its revenue and profit acceleration was far below the market expectation, yet it was in line with our latest estimation.
In 2008, the company realized operating revenue of Rmb8.2bn (+14% yoy) and net profit attributable to shareholders of parent of Rmb3.8bn (+34% yoy); besides, its EPS and operational cash flow per share pegged at Rmb4.03 and Rmb5.56 respectively and deposit received reached Rmb2.9bn.
Our Analysis and Estimation:
1. Operational cash flow per share/EPS and deposit received/income are worthy of attentions;
2. Deposit received varies in the initial year that financial crisis influences the consumption, thus Q4 performance becomes the lowest in 2008.
3. High-degreed Mautai performs prominently;
Investment Suggestion:
Considering the company’s disposal of deposit received, we hold that it will grow in the coming years; however, given that the duration of financial crisis will impact its performance release, its 2009-2010E EPS will probably be Rmb5 and Rmb6 based on our demonstration that Mautao sales performs relatively the most steadfast since the financial crisis, thus we maintain “Recommended” rating for the counter.
Besides, we also hold that anticipation variation of macro-economic climate index will to some degree determine the company’s performance estimation of investors.