By Kofi Duan

Source:  China Stock Advice

For the economic crisis still spreads worldwide, most institutions decreased their GDP forecast for the world and major countries. However, China central government still sets 8% as its GDP target in 2009. Is this target too unrealistic?

Days ago, one researcher of The Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC) said that the 8% is nearly impossible, even 6%, it's hard to achieve. The Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC) is a policy research and consulting institution directly under the State Council of the People's Republic of China. Its main function is to undertake research on the overall, comprehensive, strategic and long-term issues related to the national economic and social development and provide policy suggestions and consulting advice to CPC Central Committee and the State Council.

At that moment, I was shocked. We all feel that the economics is in its downturn this year, but I haven't expected that the macro-economics is so awful in 2009.

The research also commented, “The export is decreased greatly for vanishing foreign demand, it's difficult to stimulate the consumption; so the investment is the only shortcut. But among the 4 trillion stimulating package, only part of it are newly-increased. Besides, the 4 trillion investment planning is quite un-scientific. In fact, it's impossible to make a scientific plan during such a short time”

Given that the GDP only increased 6% or less, China would face great burden on the employment, and social development.

But at year end, the National Bureau of Statistics would probably give out a 8% GDP growth, or a number quite near 8%. It's decided by China's national situation. “We need to make the whole nation have confidence”, the researcher said.