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Gold Has Had A Wild Ride, What's Next

By Enjoy

Jan 21, 2009
Commodity
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Investors in gold may feel as if they scaled a steep mountain in 2008, only to proceed to slide right back down the other side.

Almost a year ago, gold soared to a record $1,002 per ounce, following a similar trajectory of other commodities. But since then, gold has lost some of its luster. It flirted with the $700 level late last year and currently trades for $823 an ounce.

That rise and quick fall has many investors wondering: What's next for gold? Because gold can serve as a hedge against inflation, investors must try to predict whether inflation will continue to be a problem. We've seen a range of opinions on what is in store for 2009 and 2010. Some camps believe the U.S. could actually see falling prices this year, leading to deflation.

Some investors are concerned that the Fed has turned on the printing presses in order to buy toxic mortgage assets and fund bailout plans. That boost in the monetary supply seems to be a big reason why many economists are expecting inflation to increase in the fourth quarter.

'Every central bank is printing money,' says Rob Lutts, president and chief investment officer of Cabot Money Management in Boston, who has been bullish on gold for four years. 'Gold is a buy.'

If Mr. Lutts is right, investing in a First Eagle fund may be one of the best ways to get exposure to gold.

Funds like First Eagle Global and First Eagle Overseas traditionally hold gold in their portfolios along with equities. Another good fund with gold among its holdings is the Permanent Portfolio.

Fidelity Select Gold, which owns nearly 70 mining companies, including Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining, is yet another mutual fund to consider. Investors just need to be certain that a fund like this works with their time horizon.

Due to their liquidity and trading flexibility, ETFs are quickly becoming the favorite vehicles for building investments in precious metals. These investments trade throughout the day like a stock (whereas a mutual fund is priced just once after the market closes) and don't levy redemption fees.

The SPDR Gold Shares tracks the price increases and decreases of bullion. The iShares COMEX Gold Trust is a similar fund. Market Vectors Gold Miners tracks an index of 32 mining companies, many of which are in the Fidelity Select Gold fund.

Rob Wherry

 

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